Eficiência de Mercado em Commodities: Tendências Emergentes, Avanços Metodológicos e Desafios de Pesquisa em uma Perspectiva Bibliométrica

Abstract

Market efficiency is a central concept in economic and financial studies, but its application to commodity markets is still less explored, despite its increasing relevance in the face of economic crises, climate changes and technological advances. This study analyzes scientific production on market efficiency in commodities between 1979 and 2024, using a bibliometric approach to map emerging trends, gaps in the literature and research opportunities. Commodity markets have particularities that challenge the assumptions of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (HME), such as seasonality, high logistics costs and vulnerability to exogenous shocks. The results highlight trends such as the impact of flutuations on maritime transport, diversions in agricultural production, or the role of cryptocurrencies as safe havens and the integration of ESG criteria. Disruptive technologies, such as artificial intelligence and big data, appear as promising tools to forecast prices and analyze volatility in agricultural, energy and mining markets. The research also shows a growing interdependence between local and global markets, especially in crises such as Covid-19, which expose structural fragilities and reinforce the need for risk mitigation strategies. This study contributes to the advancement of literature by integrating consolidated theoretical foundations with emerging approaches, providing subsidies for public policies and corporate strategies aimed at resilience and sustainability in global commodity markets.